Brokemaker
0x84c386331355f47057afca0c06c7211f4dbe35d4
- Realised P&L
- $-10.5k
- Volume
- $565.2k
- Markets traded
- 3,577
- Open portfolio
- $7.86
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,577
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration18.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026? · Yes | 0.265 | 0.180 | $6.70 | −$3.17 |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.070 | $1.13 | −$2.54 |
| Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.001 | $0.03 | −$1.63 |
| Will Al Lawson win the Tallahassee mayoral election? · Yes | 0.443 | 0.001 | $0.01 | −$7.18 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$592.01at 0.445Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
- +$355.62at 0.420Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-09-15?
- +$354.20at 0.080Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?
- +$325.81at 0.380Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score
- +$305.21at 0.190Will AS Omónoia Leukosías win on 2026-09-16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 02:25 | Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028? | SELL | 0.85 | $1.70 |
| 09-30 20:11 | RFK Jr. Out by December 31? | SELL | 0.16 | $0.05 |
| 09-30 03:25 | Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat? | SELL | 0.76 | $3.25 |
| 09-29 04:58 | Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.02 |
| 09-27 23:29 | Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | SELL | 0.967 | $0.39 |
| 09-27 00:49 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.966 | $1.60 |
| 09-26 21:23 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.11 | $0.44 |
| 09-26 04:13 | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.00 |
| 09-25 19:23 | Iran leadership change by December 31? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.25 |
| 09-25 11:04 | Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.966 | $0.89 |
| 09-24 21:15 | Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat? | SELL | 0.21 | $0.53 |
| 09-24 07:37 | Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | SELL | 0.91 | $3.33 |
| 09-24 03:06 | Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.028 | $0.01 |
| 09-23 22:25 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $0.42 |
| 09-23 17:37 | Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled? | SELL | 0.929 | $2.71 |