NominalValue
0x84a4852966b8986400ff834a8c049f76adc18cb2
- Realised P&L
- $275.60
- Volume
- $111.1k
- Markets traded
- 27
- Open portfolio
- $2.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded27
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample24 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.061 | 0.144 | $1.1k | +$606.04 |
| Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? · Yes | 0.567 | 0.435 | $919.85 | −$280.14 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.217 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? · Yes | 0.109 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$787.57at 0.236Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
- +$471.44at 0.288Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?
- +$240.81at 0.150JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
- +$234.75at 0.041Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$225.56at 0.700US recession by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 14:05 | Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.0053179233 | $22.65 |
| 09-14 17:50 | US recession by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.9017937612 | $1.0k |
| 09-14 17:49 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.055 | $50.11 |
| 09-14 17:48 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.934 | $594.48 |
| 09-14 16:37 | Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.002 | $4.07 |
| 08-11 16:01 | Will Javier Milei win the 2027 Argentina presidential election? | BUY | 0.5674810461 | $1.2k |
| 08-10 07:57 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.1604901043 | $1.2k |
| 06-27 10:04 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.2169999997 | $500.00 |
| 05-20 07:44 | Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.055 | $38.66 |
| 05-03 18:03 | Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.0565622161 | $115.16 |
| 04-30 13:41 | Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? | SELL | 0.959000974 | $689.23 |
| 04-29 16:17 | Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%? | SELL | 0.13119599 | $44.23 |
| 04-29 16:16 | Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%? | BUY | 0.2782793764 | $200.00 |
| 04-29 14:31 | James Comey arrested by May 15? | SELL | 0.0586190969 | $65.11 |
| 04-29 14:31 | Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.4911730585 | $312.63 |