PolyBot

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Traders

napamen

0x849418ee19454113a9c3521c8d04bcab52f4814a

Realised P&L
$-3.0k
Volume
$488.5k
Markets traded
1,170
Open portfolio
$246.64

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded1,170
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)2.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration17.2% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will ByteDance have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026? · No0.8300.850$42.50+$1.00
Will Donald Trump attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · No0.9560.850$42.50$5.30
Will Marco Rubio attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? · No0.9200.720$36.00$10.00
Will Colston Loveland have 9.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · No0.8900.670$33.38$10.96
Will Fernando Mendoza be named the Raiders' starting QB by Week 9? · Yes0.7600.415$20.75$17.25
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? · Yes0.8100.780$19.89$0.76
Will Derrick Henry have 16.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · No0.7900.455$9.10$6.70
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting? · No0.1440.125$6.25$0.95
Will two people dissent the October Fed decision? · Yes0.1900.100$5.00$4.50
Will Sam Darnold have 29.5+ passing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · Yes0.1900.092$4.63$4.88
Will Justin Jefferson have 4.5+ receiving touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · No0.1900.090$4.50$5.00
Will Derrick Henry have 8.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season? · No0.2100.050$2.50$8.00
Will Dune: Part Three be delayed? · Yes0.0800.024$2.35$5.65
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released between September 28 and October 4, 2026? · Yes0.0990.046$2.33$2.62
Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? · Yes0.0950.043$2.17$2.57

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 22:05Will the Giants win the season series against the Commanders during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?SELL0.29$1.15
09-17 21:34Will Chris Hill win the 2026 Collin County Judge election?SELL0.73$36.50
09-17 21:33Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.20% before 2027?SELL0.894$44.70
09-17 20:18Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections?SELL0.816122449$20.00
09-17 19:38Will there be between 110m and 115m votes cast in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections?SELL0.82$41.00
09-17 19:36Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in September?SELL0.95$47.50
09-17 19:27Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?SELL0.941$47.05
09-17 19:07Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?SELL0.902$45.10
09-17 19:03Will Ipswich Town finish in the top 2 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?SELL0.913$45.65
09-17 19:02Will an Independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?SELL0.901$45.05
09-17 18:48Will Joe Burrow win the 2026 NFL MVP?SELL0.924$8.86
09-17 14:54Will Marseille qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Champions League?SELL0.12$2.40
09-17 14:54Will Udinese qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Conference League?SELL0.06$0.06
09-17 11:05Will Google be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of September 2026?SELL0.138$6.90
09-17 11:05Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?SELL0.75$22.42