AshTheGreat
0x84604d510d00ae7b8f95827b5528f024677563e3
- Realised P&L
- $-2.3k
- Volume
- $67.5k
- Markets traded
- 139
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded139
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$308.50at 0.130Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14?
- +$288.78at 0.590Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days?
- +$244.22at 0.558Will Bitcoin reach $61,000 on July 1?
- +$176.01at 0.394Will Trump reduce tariffs on Mexico or Canada today?
- +$152.66at 0.621Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 18:26 | Belarus vs. Finland: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.6199999992 | $250.00 |
| 10-06 18:14 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 7? | SELL | 0.933 | $364.45 |
| 10-06 18:04 | Scotland vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.6374501992 | $250.00 |
| 10-06 18:02 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on October 8? | BUY | 0.525564237 | $250.00 |
| 10-03 23:26 | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in October? | BUY | 0.719999999 | $109.75 |
| 10-03 23:22 | Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%? | BUY | 0.741432598 | $250.00 |
| 10-03 23:22 | Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999992 | $250.00 |
| 10-03 23:19 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6459999984 | $250.00 |
| 10-03 23:17 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 7? | BUY | 0.64 | $250.00 |
| 10-03 22:45 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31? | BUY | 0.6208696198 | $250.00 |
| 09-15 21:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET | BUY | 0.3399999989 | $100.00 |
| 09-07 21:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | SELL | 0.5250666261 | $103.63 |
| 09-07 21:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET | BUY | 0.5066495243 | $100.00 |
| 07-19 19:37 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5988235903 | $150.00 |
| 07-07 17:33 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07? | SELL | 0.05 | $31.91 |