0x844aa527ebbc50d6bfe337499142ea9b0b36fc69
- Realised P&L
- $20.43
- Volume
- $543.00
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $44.52
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration67.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration63.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.685 | $28.09 | +$18.66 |
| Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? · No | 0.920 | 0.984 | $8.85 | +$0.57 |
| H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.935 | $4.67 | +$0.33 |
| Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.085 | $1.36 | −$0.56 |
| Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.668 | 0.192 | $1.15 | −$2.86 |
| Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.080 | $0.40 | −$0.65 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.24at 0.320Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027?
- +$1.12at 0.360Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?
- +$0.68at 0.640Will Michael Carrick be appointed as manager of Manchester United?
- +$0.58at 0.810U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027?
- +$0.29at 0.908Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-18 22:51 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.21 | $1.05 |
| 07-18 16:01 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $1.92 |
| 07-13 04:45 | China coup attempt before 2027? | BUY | 0.977 | $7.82 |
| 07-06 13:31 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BUY | 0.966 | $4.83 |
| 06-27 18:13 | Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.26 |
| 06-26 14:56 | Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $4.10 |
| 06-22 13:46 | US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027? | BUY | 0.86 | $4.30 |
| 04-27 14:58 | Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027? | BUY | 0.908 | $13.62 |
| 04-15 16:16 | Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026? | BUY | 0.933 | $5.60 |
| 04-15 16:16 | Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $2.24 |
| 04-15 16:16 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $9.02 |
| 04-15 16:16 | Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.40 |
| 04-09 11:06 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $30.78 |
| 04-09 11:06 | U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $3.23 |
| 04-07 01:24 | Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.17 | $2.21 |