PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x844aa527ebbc50d6bfe337499142ea9b0b36fc69

Realised P&L
$20.43
Volume
$543.00
Markets traded
18
Open portfolio
$44.52

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar3.8%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
BlockerMarkets traded18
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
BlockerProfit concentration67.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample17 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)52.9%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration63.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
OpenAI IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? · Yes0.2300.685$28.09+$18.66
Will OpenAI be acquired before 2027? · No0.9200.984$8.85+$0.57
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026? · No0.8700.935$4.67+$0.33
Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.1200.085$1.36$0.56
Will Paramount close Warner Bros. acquisition by end of 2026? · Yes0.6680.192$1.15$2.86
Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027? · Yes0.2100.080$0.40$0.65

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-18 22:51Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.21$1.05
07-18 16:01Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.12$1.92
07-13 04:45China coup attempt before 2027?BUY0.977$7.82
07-06 13:31Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?BUY0.966$4.83
06-27 18:13Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? BUY0.14$1.26
06-26 14:56Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.82$4.10
06-22 13:46US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine before 2027?BUY0.86$4.30
04-27 14:58Milei out as President of Argentina before 2027?BUY0.908$13.62
04-15 16:16Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2026?BUY0.933$5.60
04-15 16:16Will The Netherlands recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.16$2.24
04-15 16:16Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.82$9.02
04-15 16:16Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027?BUY0.2$1.40
04-09 11:06U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY0.81$30.78
04-09 11:06U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? BUY0.19$3.23
04-07 01:24Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026?BUY0.17$2.21