promax18
0x842f01ecf5a42bd48d5a9845d6baa5509eb19444
- Realised P&L
- $-352.92
- Volume
- $4.6k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $240.11
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump declassifies new UFO files by October 15? · No | 0.805 | 0.835 | $211.96 | +$7.51 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.275 | $28.15 | −$36.35 |
| Claude 4.7 released by May 31? · No | 0.578 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$243.05 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? · No | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.00 |
| Will Drake have a #1 hit in May? · No | 0.216 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$68.00 |
| Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? · No | 0.245 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$19.48 |
| Will Train Dreams win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$59.48 |
| Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? · No | 0.355 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$51.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$125.28at 0.568Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$44.06at 0.632Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?
- +$27.94at 0.835Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?
- +$19.91at 0.682Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
- +$8.40at 0.218Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-23 15:27 | Trump declassifies new UFO files by October 15? | BUY | 0.805427068 | $204.45 |
| 09-23 15:25 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.37 | $37.00 |
| 09-03 13:36 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520? | BUY | 0.8289999992 | $140.11 |
| 08-17 06:02 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? | SELL | 0.365501615 | $22.63 |
| 08-15 01:34 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999994 | $127.50 |
| 08-15 01:27 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? | BUY | 0.2099317559 | $13.00 |
| 08-15 01:24 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? | SELL | 0.8024728586 | $142.21 |
| 07-31 18:08 | Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? | BUY | 0.6711426533 | $118.94 |
| 07-05 21:37 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.6538461538 | $8.50 |
| 07-01 14:03 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.689999997 | $35.00 |
| 06-13 14:19 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.62 | $52.27 |
| 06-11 09:35 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.6265600119 | $30.00 |
| 05-23 14:11 | Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? | BUY | 0.3549078025 | $51.11 |
| 05-23 14:01 | Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? | BUY | 0.2447236181 | $19.48 |
| 04-28 15:25 | Will Drake have a #1 hit in May? | BUY | 0.2163636017 | $68.00 |