ronaldvasquez
0x842c284da8ff012688b6b4fdc24dbf8b6eef85d8
- Realised P&L
- $-45.53
- Volume
- $12.9k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $64.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on September 19? · No | 0.710 | 0.770 | $46.54 | +$3.63 |
| Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30? · Yes | 0.586 | 0.590 | $18.00 | +$0.12 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on September 17? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.28at 0.755Will the Palisades fire be fully contained by January 31?
- +$7.74at 0.810Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?
- +$7.16at 0.749Will the Lions win Super Bowl 2025?
- +$3.98at 0.840Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on September 11?
- +$3.84at 0.340Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 19:59 | Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30? | BUY | 0.5859999883 | $17.88 |
| 09-16 06:38 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on September 17? | BUY | 0.5099999992 | $30.16 |
| 01-31 13:47 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9989999768 | $5.86 |
| 01-30 17:25 | Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $5.01 |
| 01-30 16:44 | Will BNB dip to $700 in January? | BUY | 0.9969999157 | $4.61 |
| 01-30 15:01 | Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? | BUY | 0.999 | $20.92 |
| 01-30 13:12 | Another US strike on Venezuela by January 31? | BUY | 0.9980350025 | $43.17 |
| 12-30 08:47 | Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $17.65 |
| 12-30 01:05 | Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.992 | $5.20 |
| 12-30 00:18 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | BUY | 0.997 | $25.26 |
| 12-29 19:15 | Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $30.49 |
| 10-30 18:38 | Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in October? | BUY | 0.9919999825 | $24.53 |
| 10-30 17:39 | Will Solana dip to $120 in October? | BUY | 0.998 | $22.32 |
| 09-29 11:04 | Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.13 |
| 09-29 03:43 | Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? | BUY | 0.997999956 | $12.34 |