antoniocensabella
0x8424b59b122c898b9acb5692a79892306cd7a503
- Realised P&L
- $-40.16
- Volume
- $4.3k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $1.39
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.3% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brex IPO before 2027? · Yes | 0.075 | 0.013 | $1.39 | −$6.61 |
| Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? · No | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Cerebras IPO before 2027? · No | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.21 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.013 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? · Yes | 0.127 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.44at 0.086Glean IPO before 2027?
- +$2.36at 0.003US forces enter Iran by April 30?
- +$-3.65at 0.130Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?
- +$-4.13at 0.320Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-04 22:46 | Cerebras IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.0079164972 | $9.21 |
| 04-29 19:29 | Glean IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.17 | $2.46 |
| 04-29 19:28 | Cerebras IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.0254356955 | $1.45 |
| 04-07 22:48 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.01 | $5.90 |
| 04-06 07:49 | Brex IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.0643200014 | $3.00 |
| 04-05 19:40 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.003 | $3.54 |
| 04-04 07:53 | Glean IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.18 | $2.60 |
| 04-01 20:10 | Glean IPO before 2027? | SELL | 0.12 | $3.47 |
| 03-31 06:55 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? | SELL | 0.015 | $0.48 |
| 03-29 20:51 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.032 | $5.00 |
| 03-29 00:22 | Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0326862062 | $5.00 |
| 03-27 21:37 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.02 | $5.00 |
| 03-26 22:45 | Glean IPO before 2027? | BUY | 0.0865384469 | $5.00 |
| 03-25 21:47 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.013 | $5.00 |
| 03-24 21:33 | Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? | BUY | 0.1274509589 | $5.00 |