ClarkPeters
0x841044859fe4d81ac9bd76815e1c3e62c92fd4ec
- Realised P&L
- $-4.4k
- Volume
- $689.5k
- Markets traded
- 105
- Open portfolio
- $3.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded105
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.034 | $2.7k | +$21.84 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.011 | $1.1k | −$707.54 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.575 | $80.50 | +$0.70 |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.918 | 0.903 | $27.11 | −$0.43 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · No | 0.810 | 0.818 | $24.53 | +$0.22 |
| Will Josh Shapiro be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.043 | $10.43 | +$2.76 |
| Will Andy Beshear be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? · Yes | 0.045 | 0.056 | $5.93 | +$1.16 |
| James Comey arrested by April 29? · No | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$342.31at 0.635Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$279.35at 0.434Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?
- +$269.45at 0.260Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
- +$154.87at 0.006Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$152.00at 0.830No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 00:24 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $79.80 |
| 09-15 05:55 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.918 | $27.54 |
| 09-15 05:55 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.81 | $24.30 |
| 09-11 21:22 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.18 | $93.60 |
| 09-11 20:28 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.008 | $20.00 |
| 09-11 17:08 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.18 | $93.60 |
| 07-14 18:06 | Will Josh Shapiro be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | BUY | 0.0298561588 | $4.00 |
| 06-29 21:59 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.0149052116 | $372.63 |
| 06-11 00:25 | Spurs vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.5499999468 | $3.62 |
| 06-04 00:03 | Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.3579999876 | $15.00 |
| 05-01 16:10 | 76ers vs. Celtics | BUY | 0.2999999948 | $29.00 |
| 04-29 15:57 | James Comey arrested by May 15? | SELL | 0.07 | $68.60 |
| 04-29 01:13 | James Comey arrested by April 29? | BUY | 0.6199999999 | $100.00 |
| 04-29 00:40 | James Comey arrested by May 15? | BUY | 0.16 | $19.74 |
| 04-29 00:34 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.022 | $207.38 |