ClarkPeters
0x841044859fe4d81ac9bd76815e1c3e62c92fd4ec
- Realised P&L
- $-3.8k
- Volume
- $761.7k
- Markets traded
- 107
- Open portfolio
- $4.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded107
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.033 | 0.027 | $2.2k | −$498.16 |
| Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.018 | 0.018 | $1.5k | +$74.01 |
| Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.005 | 0.007 | $443.30 | +$126.75 |
| Will Josh Shapiro be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? · Yes | 0.034 | 0.025 | $8.00 | −$2.99 |
| James Comey arrested by April 29? · No | 0.620 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$342.31at 0.635Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$279.35at 0.434Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by January 31?
- +$269.45at 0.260Will Taylor Swift perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show?
- +$154.87at 0.006Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$152.00at 0.830No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-24 00:48 | Will Andy Beshear be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | SELL | 0.031106791 | $3.54 |
| 10-21 01:45 | Will Jay Z perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? | BUY | 0.0629999997 | $2.32 |
| 10-21 01:37 | Will Jay Z perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? | BUY | 0.0605628013 | $4.00 |
| 10-20 20:48 | Will Jay Z perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show? | BUY | 0.0587572194 | $9.00 |
| 10-20 20:14 | Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.007 | $63.52 |
| 10-15 17:23 | Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.006 | $60.00 |
| 09-22 16:41 | Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.005 | $25.00 |
| 09-22 16:40 | Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.005 | $25.00 |
| 09-22 16:30 | Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.005 | $100.00 |
| 09-22 16:29 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.61 | $85.40 |
| 09-22 16:28 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.816 | $24.48 |
| 09-22 16:26 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.923 | $27.69 |
| 09-17 00:24 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.57 | $79.80 |
| 09-15 05:55 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.918 | $27.54 |
| 09-15 05:55 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.81 | $24.30 |