0x8409c339469c7ddbbe29abe2df1dba4386b09d15
0x8409c339469c7ddbbe29abe2df1dba4386b09d15
- Realised P&L
- $-2.22
- Volume
- $96.37
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $3.97
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 5? · Up | 0.540 | 1.000 | $1.85 | +$0.85 |
| Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.415 | $1.15 | +$0.15 |
| Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $195 Week of October 5 2026? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.640 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.82at 0.268WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on August 26?
- +$2.67at 0.278Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 Week of August 24 2026?
- +$1.61at 0.389Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of September 21 2026?
- +$1.48at 0.410Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 in September?
- +$1.48at 0.410Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 15:43 | Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $195 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 08:17 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 5? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 00:17 | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (LOW) $1,020 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 12:21 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 10-01 04:10 | Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 02:49 | Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 09:23 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 in September? | BUY | 0.4 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 23:00 | Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999924 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 07:39 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 22:55 | Will Trump say "Communist" or "Communism" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly? | BUY | 0.7199999424 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 11:37 | Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 15:28 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 16? | BUY | 0.7299998102 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 06:43 | Will Warsh say "Scenario" during September Press Conference? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 09-09 13:05 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 09-08 10:38 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |