gsdffgysas
0x83fbaa355ea6e15fd52de42274fdfd35213b2a3a
- Realised P&L
- $43.29
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 109
- Open portfolio
- $130.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded109
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)96.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.780 | 0.890 | $114.10 | +$14.10 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 October 12-18? · No | 0.999 | 0.996 | $13.95 | −$0.05 |
| Metamask FDV above $4B one day after launch? · No | 0.950 | 0.978 | $1.33 | +$0.04 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.982 | 0.999 | $1.17 | +$0.02 |
| Golden Knights vs. Ducks · Ducks | 0.110 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$25.70at 0.666Bitcoin Up or Down on May 15?
- +$13.13at 0.667Will France win on 2026-06-16?
- +$2.64at 0.696Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?
- +$0.38at 0.969Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?
- +$0.26at 0.960Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 06:45 | Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 October 12-18? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.00 |
| 09-03 03:09 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in September? | BUY | 0.9819999999 | $14.00 |
| 08-19 07:55 | Will Tencent have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 08-19 07:55 | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $5.00 |
| 08-19 07:54 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.9929999985 | $4.00 |
| 08-02 07:07 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $9.00 |
| 08-02 07:07 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 08-02 07:06 | Ink FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.7799999995 | $100.00 |
| 07-23 04:12 | Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.00 |
| 07-23 04:12 | Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.00 |
| 07-23 04:11 | Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $8.00 |
| 07-23 04:11 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.00 |
| 07-23 04:11 | Will xAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.00 |
| 07-23 04:11 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? | BUY | 0.98 | $7.00 |
| 07-23 04:11 | Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $6.00 |