0x83f1838607b95463fa17ea7a5c404b1a706362fd
0x83f1838607b95463fa17ea7a5c404b1a706362fd
- Realised P&L
- $-13.36
- Volume
- $190.47
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $3.84
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration23.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample45 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)37.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? · Yes | 0.350 | 0.700 | $2.00 | +$1.00 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? · No | 0.640 | 0.615 | $0.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.405 | $0.88 | −$0.12 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.26at 0.249Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$3.51at 0.229Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?
- +$2.94at 0.412Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?
- +$1.92at 0.359Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of July 27 2026?
- +$1.91at 0.490Will Trump say "Sleepy" during White House Correspondents Dinner?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 13:41 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 05:33 | Will annual inflation be 3.6% in September? | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 08:09 | Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 00:09 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-08 00:08 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 16:07 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 08:02 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.3099999473 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 00:01 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 08-19 07:26 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.4099998237 | $1.00 |
| 08-14 15:53 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 08-14 06:29 | Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 10-August 16? | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 08-13 22:26 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 08-08 12:13 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.00 |
| 08-06 15:07 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.3719998891 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 07:06 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |