regina41
0x8390f9e25122e59e768de9550b31dd413c24e0c6
- Realised P&L
- $-50.82
- Volume
- $13.6k
- Markets traded
- 82
- Open portfolio
- $26.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded82
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? · No | 0.709 | 0.725 | $26.15 | +$0.59 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.20at 0.680Magic vs. 76ers
- +$8.09at 0.583Will Elon tweet 400-449 times Jan 10-17?
- +$1.04at 0.520Will Inter Milan win the Serie A?
- +$0.22at 0.987Will the Progressive Conservatives win the most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?
- +$0.20at 0.995Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 02:44 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1? | BUY | 0.7086138171 | $25.56 |
| 01-31 14:00 | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? | BUY | 0.995 | $11.03 |
| 01-30 17:53 | Will Solana dip to $80 in January? | BUY | 0.998 | $26.13 |
| 01-30 12:23 | Will xAI have the second-best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $44.30 |
| 01-30 12:21 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? | BUY | 0.9980000001 | $25.20 |
| 12-30 08:56 | Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.94 |
| 12-29 22:12 | Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? | BUY | 0.9989999418 | $6.61 |
| 12-29 21:44 | Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $14.81 |
| 12-29 20:20 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025? | BUY | 0.995 | $40.40 |
| 12-29 19:48 | Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $46.33 |
| 10-30 18:11 | Will OpenAI have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $24.37 |
| 10-30 18:08 | Will Moonshot have the second best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $31.40 |
| 10-07 16:16 | Dogecoin all time high before 2026? | SELL | 0.8205534591 | $10.44 |
| 09-29 17:11 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | BUY | 0.9979999467 | $15.02 |
| 09-29 13:55 | Will Google have the second best AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9879999997 | $12.96 |