0x838e42197b16fa02a0e74cd1856b3cdd35e8becb
0x838e42197b16fa02a0e74cd1856b3cdd35e8becb
- Realised P&L
- $-13.72
- Volume
- $755.28
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $52.66
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on October 11? · No | 0.640 | 0.595 | $14.17 | −$1.07 |
| Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on October 10? · No | 0.620 | 0.625 | $12.44 | +$0.10 |
| Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 10? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.600 | $11.64 | +$0.19 |
| Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 10? · No | 0.712 | 0.700 | $4.40 | −$0.08 |
| Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on October 11? · Yes | 0.390 | 0.435 | $3.96 | +$0.41 |
| Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 10? · No | 0.810 | 0.935 | $2.89 | +$0.39 |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on October 10? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.245 | $2.00 | +$0.12 |
| Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on October 10? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.615 | $1.16 | +$0.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.02at 0.853Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$-0.07at 0.330Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?
- +$-0.10at 0.742Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- +$-0.49at 0.643Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- +$-0.53at 0.869Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-09 20:13 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on October 11? | BUY | 0.3899999615 | $3.55 |
| 10-09 20:13 | Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on October 11? | BUY | 0.64 | $15.24 |
| 10-09 20:02 | Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.7120529424 | $4.48 |
| 10-09 19:09 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on October 10? | BUY | 0.5899999897 | $11.45 |
| 10-09 18:45 | Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.619999994 | $12.34 |
| 10-09 10:00 | Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.2299999731 | $1.88 |
| 10-09 10:00 | Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 10? | BUY | 0.8099999514 | $2.50 |
| 10-09 09:11 | Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on October 10? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 08:25 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | SELL | 0.32 | $1.06 |
| 10-09 08:25 | Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.73 | $3.23 |
| 10-09 08:25 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $15.78 |
| 10-09 08:25 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | SELL | 0.63 | $19.03 |
| 10-09 08:25 | Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.959 | $42.78 |
| 10-09 08:25 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.862 | $42.48 |
| 10-09 08:25 | Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | SELL | 0.86 | $53.86 |