0x838bca591b24604b530f61162c6f38938e3c66a5
0x838bca591b24604b530f61162c6f38938e3c66a5
- Realised P&L
- $7.42
- Volume
- $211.14
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $100.61
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration31.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)91.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 15 million views this week? · No | 0.933 | 0.910 | $24.38 | −$0.62 |
| Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 18 million views this week? · No | 0.966 | 0.935 | $24.20 | −$0.80 |
| Will the #1 global Netflix show have at least 17 million views this week? · No | 0.951 | 0.935 | $19.66 | −$0.34 |
| Will "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.980 | $11.80 | +$1.80 |
| Will "A Different World: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? · No | 0.950 | 0.989 | $10.41 | +$0.41 |
| Will "Wonka's The Golden Ticket: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? · No | 0.900 | 0.915 | $10.17 | +$0.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.32at 0.815Will "Why Did I Get Married Again?" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
- +$0.85at 0.923Will "The Whisper Man" be the top global Netflix movie this week?
- +$0.84at 0.923Will the #1 global Netflix show have at least 12 million views this week?
- +$0.84at 0.923Will "The Whisper Man" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week?
- +$0.73at 0.933Will "Crew Girl: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 04:34 | Will the #1 global Netflix show have at least 17 million views this week? | BUY | 0.9553854863 | $10.00 |
| 09-26 02:07 | Will "Wonka's The Golden Ticket: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.9 | $10.00 |
| 09-26 01:50 | Will the #1 global Netflix show have at least 17 million views this week? | BUY | 0.9471774102 | $10.00 |
| 09-26 01:28 | Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 15 million views this week? | BUY | 0.9399999962 | $5.00 |
| 09-26 01:28 | Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 15 million views this week? | BUY | 0.9399999981 | $10.00 |
| 09-26 01:26 | Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 15 million views this week? | BUY | 0.9231343208 | $10.00 |
| 09-26 01:25 | Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 18 million views this week? | BUY | 0.9699999981 | $5.00 |
| 09-26 01:25 | Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 18 million views this week? | BUY | 0.9699999981 | $10.00 |
| 09-26 01:25 | Will the #1 global Netflix movie have at least 18 million views this week? | BUY | 0.96 | $10.00 |
| 09-25 02:21 | Will "A Different World: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.95 | $10.00 |
| 09-25 02:19 | Will "Monster: The Lizzie Borden Story: Season 1" be the top US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $10.00 |
| 09-21 18:20 | Will "Why Did I Get Married Again?" be the top US Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.7699999877 | $5.00 |
| 09-21 18:19 | Will "Why Did I Get Married Again?" be the top US Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.8299999967 | $5.00 |
| 09-21 16:57 | Will "Crew Girl: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.9879999984 | $5.00 |
| 09-20 12:19 | Will "Crew Girl: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.9299999888 | $5.00 |