0x8388f2059cfcc1ffe350c92f8610d6f723912426
- Realised P&L
- $-2.50
- Volume
- $212.04
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $8.96
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.997 | $2.93 | +$0.93 |
| Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks in North Carolina? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.750 | $2.05 | +$0.05 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.780 | 0.949 | $1.92 | +$0.34 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? · Yes | 0.300 | 0.235 | $1.57 | −$0.43 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.470 | 0.115 | $0.49 | −$1.51 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.63at 0.268Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?
- +$4.45at 0.310US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$4.18at 0.331Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$3.34at 0.382Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?
- +$2.39at 0.462Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 23:43 | Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during his remarks in North Carolina? | BUY | 0.7299999087 | $2.00 |
| 09-15 15:34 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.299999985 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 00:48 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 09-09 04:26 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.469999906 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 18:46 | LAPTOP airdrop by September 9? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.43 |
| 09-08 10:39 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4? | BUY | 0.68 | $2.00 |
| 09-08 00:25 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $112.50 Week of September 7 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999848 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 16:07 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |
| 09-07 07:27 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 11? | BUY | 0.5899999758 | $1.22 |
| 09-04 02:29 | Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%? | BUY | 0.3699999112 | $2.00 |
| 09-04 01:59 | Will the August 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%? | BUY | 0.6899997205 | $2.00 |
| 09-03 16:15 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 28 to September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999299 | $1.94 |
| 08-22 06:03 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-21 22:02 | Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August? | BUY | 0.5599999664 | $2.00 |
| 08-20 13:41 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.625 | $2.00 |