0x83827c22106700E4DEbAf47648D2453D6ae6f44E-1767422546765
0x83827c22106700e4debaf47648d2453d6ae6f44e
- Realised P&L
- $-151.65
- Volume
- $21.8k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $562.50
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.807 | 0.375 | $562.50 | −$648.49 |
| alon called coin FDV above $5M one day after the call? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.86 |
| Lighter Airdrop on December 29? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.00 |
| Will Opinion launch a token by February 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$35.21 |
| Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin August 26-September 1? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$150.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$298.05at 0.909Trove FDV above $10M one day after launch?
- +$194.00at 0.800Will Zootopia 2 be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15?
- +$147.59at 0.700Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale?
- +$124.00at 0.380Will Axiom be accused of insider trading?
- +$89.22at 0.650Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-03 09:12 | Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.67 | $134.00 |
| 03-03 15:01 | Will Zootopia 2 be the 2025 film with the highest domestic gross on March 15? | SELL | 0.994 | $20.87 |
| 03-03 14:50 | Cambria FDV above $20M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.61 | $14.03 |
| 02-26 11:19 | Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? | BUY | 0.38 | $76.00 |
| 01-27 17:42 | Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.59 | $5.91 |
| 01-27 16:54 | Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.64 | $6.40 |
| 01-27 16:51 | Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.33 | $3.30 |
| 01-26 20:32 | Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.72 | $21.31 |
| 01-20 22:31 | Space FDV above $120M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.97 | $121.25 |
| 01-20 22:30 | Space FDV above $120M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.9519871795 | $59.40 |
| 01-20 22:30 | Space FDV above $140M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.96 | $42.24 |
| 01-20 22:30 | Space FDV above $120M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.94 | $79.98 |
| 01-19 22:56 | Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.76 | $161.69 |
| 01-19 22:55 | Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.77 | $46.20 |
| 01-19 22:50 | Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.5733852404 | $16.94 |