YangShi-790
0x836d7e4c5c4e8f1ee847980bdd10e71322268c44
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $13.2k
- Markets traded
- 79
- Open portfolio
- $3.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded79
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration99.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · Yes | 0.391 | 0.285 | $3.2k | −$1.2k |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.208 | 0.105 | $7.56 | −$7.44 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026? · Yes | 0.510 | 0.205 | $3.34 | −$4.97 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · No | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.00 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? · Yes | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.70 |
| Will the US seize an Iran-linked tanker by Feb 28? · No | 0.693 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$25.00 |
| Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will 'Deadline' - BlackPink debut week album sales be less than 300k? · No | 0.381 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.08 |
| Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model this year? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.40 |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026? · No | 0.570 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$67.42at 0.620Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?
- +$46.43at 0.350Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?
- +$40.12at 0.486Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$27.33at 0.423Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$20.74at 0.350Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-13 12:18 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.32 | $109.58 |
| 07-07 02:13 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.7899999754 | $6.42 |
| 07-05 05:07 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.5698757472 | $70.00 |
| 06-20 05:40 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.5299999907 | $8.00 |
| 06-20 05:34 | Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | SELL | 0.1719961704 | $3.59 |
| 06-20 05:33 | Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? | SELL | 0.17 | $1.54 |
| 06-18 11:41 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.4760330521 | $30.00 |
| 06-18 11:37 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BUY | 0.6199999986 | $110.00 |
| 06-18 10:56 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799999974 | $31.00 |
| 06-04 14:38 | US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | BUY | 0.6999999965 | $40.00 |
| 03-16 11:23 | Will Ubisoft be acquired before 2027? | BUY | 0.4199999381 | $3.80 |
| 03-16 11:18 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $25.00 |
| 03-16 11:17 | Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30? | BUY | 0.349999993 | $25.00 |
| 03-07 07:39 | Iran coup attempt by June 30? | SELL | 0.33 | $11.00 |
| 03-03 22:52 | Will 'Deadline' - BlackPink debut week album sales be less than 300k? | SELL | 0.0106884129 | $0.11 |