0x834ac1c40c669e7d0811376369b97218918a1b2f
0x834ac1c40c669e7d0811376369b97218918a1b2f
- Realised P&L
- $-4.54
- Volume
- $281.15
- Markets traded
- 75
- Open portfolio
- $4.49
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded75
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration8.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 20? · Up | 0.360 | 0.845 | $2.35 | +$1.35 |
| United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%? · No | 0.500 | 0.580 | $1.16 | +$0.16 |
| Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q3 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 6% to 8%? · No | 0.800 | 0.790 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.61at 0.440SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 14?
- +$2.20at 0.482Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?
- +$2.11at 0.492Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?
- +$2.04at 0.500WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$2.00at 0.341Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 12:26 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 20? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 04:26 | Thermo Fisher (TMO) Q3 organic revenue growth (non-GAAP) 6% to 8%? | BUY | 0.8 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 20:26 | United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 12:23 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 12:36 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 04:35 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 20:34 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 23:02 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 12 to October 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 14:59 | Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September? | BUY | 0.6299998362 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 18:48 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 20:02 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 12:01 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999895 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 04:01 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 20:03 | Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 12:02 | Will Trump say "Melania" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |