PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

xantham

0x833f5690bd4609bd4679f8973666b1c0e9599557

Realised P&L
$-296.82
Volume
$120.4k
Markets traded
465
Open portfolio
$17.93

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded465
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration23.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration61.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0400.054$10.94+$2.84
Xi Jinping out before 2027? · Yes0.0440.045$5.17+$0.17
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0600.045$1.13$0.38
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? · Yes0.0240.012$0.69$0.69
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET · Down0.8100.000$0.00$1.00
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 9? · Yes0.6600.000$0.00$1.00
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? · Yes0.5790.000$0.00$38.91
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 104-105°F on July 31? · Yes0.2340.000$0.00$2.00
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 7? · Yes0.5300.000$0.00$1.60
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET · Up0.6300.000$0.00$1.00
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? · Yes0.0050.000$0.00$6.70
Was the Fox News guest wearing a mask? · Yes0.0170.000$0.00$2.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET · Up0.4600.000$0.00$1.00
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? · No0.0900.000$0.00$2.00
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 6, 2026? · No0.0030.000$0.00$2.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-16 22:59Xi Jinping out before 2027?BUY0.0439999999$5.00
09-11 23:10Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?BUY0.0239999999$1.39
09-11 23:08US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?SELL0.047181054$1.46
09-04 12:29US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?BUY0.0491279784$1.52
09-04 12:20Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?SELL0.032$1.57
09-01 18:17Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September?BUY0.025$1.23
08-30 22:17Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?SELL0.0171597136$1.94
08-30 22:09Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?BUY0.001$1.40
08-30 22:02Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?BUY0.0162656081$1.20
08-30 21:33Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026?BUY0.06$1.50
08-30 21:22Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?BUY0.0389999815$2.00
08-29 20:24Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?BUY0.025999975$1.00
08-29 20:24Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?BUY0.0088379996$1.00
08-29 20:16Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?BUY0.04$1.10
08-26 18:56Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on August 27?BUY0.05$1.00