keithvega
0x83245b7f95c191a2e8a1a343464f2f4e725b42ef
- Realised P&L
- $-62.16
- Volume
- $11.3k
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $20.93
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration84.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on September 23? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.465 | $20.93 | −$6.53 |
| Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on September 19? · No | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.14 |
| CA Barracas Central vs. CS Independiente Rivadavia: CS Independiente Rivadavia O/U 4.5 Corners · Under | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$24.84 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.36at 0.760Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals?
- +$6.06at 0.280Will Bitcoin hit $100k before Trump inauguration?
- +$0.58at 0.670Will Elon tweet less than 400 times Jan 10-17?
- +$0.29at 0.870MicroStrategy purchases more Bitcoin before inauguration?
- +$0.22at 0.985Will Tesla launch a driverless Robotaxi service before August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-31 13:36 | Will XRP dip to $1.40 in January? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.04 |
| 01-30 15:40 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.9979999134 | $10.99 |
| 01-30 14:57 | Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.33 |
| 01-30 13:02 | Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $15.24 |
| 12-30 12:44 | Will Trump pardon Julian Assange in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.46 |
| 12-30 12:32 | Will Trump pardon Do Kwon in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $5.04 |
| 12-30 12:25 | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? | BUY | 0.9979999606 | $11.86 |
| 12-29 19:15 | Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025? | BUY | 0.998 | $8.01 |
| 12-29 19:08 | Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame in 2025? | BUY | 0.999 | $32.20 |
| 10-31 00:10 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.76 |
| 10-30 21:42 | Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? | BUY | 0.995 | $11.35 |
| 10-30 17:51 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.43 |
| 09-29 10:06 | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.9979999455 | $16.00 |
| 09-28 23:01 | Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? | BUY | 0.995 | $16.14 |
| 09-28 21:11 | Xi Jinping out before October? | BUY | 0.9989999619 | $11.55 |