0x831fb646B107762D737e1D62bc1b44b4ED44b13A-1764657822770
0x831fb646b107762d737e1d62bc1b44b4ed44b13a
- Realised P&L
- $3.45
- Volume
- $565.00
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $29.49
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample35 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 24? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.865 | $10.18 | +$0.18 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · No | 0.956 | 0.953 | $9.97 | −$0.04 |
| Will Dolly Parton be the #1 searched passing on Google this year? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.455 | $4.74 | −$0.26 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · Yes | 0.856 | 0.914 | $2.14 | +$0.14 |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? · Yes | 0.750 | 0.835 | $1.11 | +$0.11 |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? · No | 0.900 | 0.935 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? · Yes | 0.081 | 0.025 | $0.31 | −$0.69 |
| Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? · No | 0.369 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.20at 0.223Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?
- +$2.85at 0.260Will Pete Hegseth ban Claude by March 31?
- +$1.93at 0.846Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?
- +$0.98at 0.510Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?
- +$0.59at 0.630Will ChatGPT be back in as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by March 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 14:04 | Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 24? | BUY | 0.8499999915 | $10.00 |
| 09-15 14:02 | Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.749999625 | $1.00 |
| 09-15 14:00 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? | BUY | 0.8559999726 | $2.00 |
| 09-14 12:38 | Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | BUY | 0.9559999128 | $10.00 |
| 09-02 06:51 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.56 | $4.46 |
| 09-02 06:39 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 09-02 06:36 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9302779647 | $22.12 |
| 09-01 08:13 | Will Dolly Parton be the #1 searched passing on Google this year? | BUY | 0.4799999808 | $5.00 |
| 09-01 08:11 | Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH? | SELL | 0.66 | $0.88 |
| 09-01 08:11 | Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? | SELL | 0.981 | $1.04 |
| 09-01 08:10 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.92 | $1.31 |
| 09-01 08:10 | Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.88 | $1.14 |
| 09-01 08:10 | Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.47 | $3.60 |
| 09-01 08:07 | Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.8409999963 | $20.00 |
| 07-13 16:51 | Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |