0x831dC836760779Fad5fd5E3B06e98d6ddAE91388-1760250528620
0x831dc836760779fad5fd5e3b06e98d6ddae91388
- Realised P&L
- $-291.26
- Volume
- $78.2k
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $21.72
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration54.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.007 | 0.001 | $21.72 | −$282.36 |
| Stars vs. Blues · Stars | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.20 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.40at 0.966Will China invade Taiwan in 2025?
- +$4.50at 0.985Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January?
- +$0.00at 0.997Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$0.00at 0.982Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$-2.72at 0.998Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-16 11:58 | Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in January? | BUY | 0.985 | $295.50 |
| 10-20 09:26 | Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? | SELL | 0.968 | $2.6k |
| 10-16 09:06 | Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | BUY | 0.997 | $2.7k |
| 10-16 09:06 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | SELL | 0.997 | $2.7k |
| 10-15 15:30 | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | BUY | 0.998 | $2.7k |
| 10-14 10:26 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.982 | $2.2k |
| 10-14 10:26 | Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.99 | $2.7k |
| 10-13 06:44 | Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.992 | $2.7k |
| 10-13 06:44 | Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | SELL | 0.991 | $2.7k |
| 10-12 07:03 | Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | BUY | 0.993 | $2.7k |