vbm
0x8304ada4e1747a1d188d7233b5c047dfce42f086
- Realised P&L
- $-1.1k
- Volume
- $527.7k
- Markets traded
- 3,503
- Open portfolio
- $6.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded3,503
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration47.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)22.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration8.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$279.18at 0.023Will Biden announce resignation by July 31?
- +$195.65at 0.688Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?
- +$170.25at 0.667Will Trump post on X again before election?
- +$163.13at 0.668No Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024?
- +$159.17at 0.628Israel x Hamas ceasefire by July 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-15 16:25 | Will Workhorse announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.65 | $13.00 |
| 09-15 16:25 | RFK Jr. Out by December 31? | BUY | 0.84 | $25.20 |
| 09-15 16:25 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $14.80 |
| 09-15 16:25 | Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.987 | $19.74 |
| 09-15 16:24 | Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $60? | BUY | 0.984 | $9.84 |
| 09-15 16:24 | Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | SELL | 0.97321 | $29.20 |
| 09-15 16:24 | Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting? | SELL | 0.984 | $29.52 |
| 09-15 16:23 | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | SELL | 0.974 | $47.73 |
| 09-15 16:23 | Will Workhorse announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.65 | $13.00 |
| 09-15 16:23 | Will Beyond Meat announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $17.40 |
| 09-15 16:23 | Will Xerox announce bankruptcy before 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $26.10 |
| 09-15 16:21 | Will Lovable announce bankruptcy before 2027? | SELL | 0.974 | $19.48 |
| 09-15 16:17 | Israel closes its airspace by September 30? | SELL | 0.026 | $1.04 |
| 09-15 16:16 | Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.993 | $19.86 |
| 09-15 16:16 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.992 | $19.84 |