0x82bbe9ff53250ab09a781bc33a10a211598fa884
0x82bbe9ff53250ab09a781bc33a10a211598fa884
- Realised P&L
- $279.35
- Volume
- $25.8k
- Markets traded
- 173
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.1%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded173
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 600k? · No | 0.900 | 0.987 | $761.90 | +$66.90 |
| Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 700k? · No | 0.940 | 1.000 | $531.65 | +$31.65 |
| Will "Boston - Stella Lefty" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 3? · Yes | 0.933 | 0.978 | $337.25 | +$15.26 |
| Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 500k? · No | 0.870 | 0.985 | $79.21 | +$9.21 |
| Will Taylor Swift be the third most streamed artist for 2026? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.615 | $77.85 | −$22.15 |
| Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 122m by October 31? · No | 0.910 | 0.963 | $52.88 | +$2.88 |
| Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the #1 US song this week? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.959 | $20.10 | +$0.60 |
| Will "Patient Zero" hit 90m first week streams? · No | 0.960 | 0.994 | $14.18 | +$0.48 |
| Will "Patient Zero" hit 100m first week streams? · No | 0.960 | 0.993 | $7.34 | +$0.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$130.87at 0.873Will "BbY WOW - KAROL G, Judeline, rusowsky" be the #2 US song this week?
- +$52.21at 0.943Will "Earrings - Malcolm Todd" be the #2 US song this week?
- +$47.74at 0.891Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 US song this week?
- +$45.30at 0.881Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the #1 US song this week?
- +$41.84at 0.648Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 22?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 15:29 | Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 500k? | BUY | 0.8699999996 | $70.00 |
| 09-26 15:28 | Will Debí Tirar Más Fotos be the top Spotify album for 2026? | SELL | 0.89 | $42.78 |
| 09-26 15:28 | Will Rihanna have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | SELL | 0.9419813543 | $28.80 |
| 09-26 13:36 | Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 600k? | BUY | 0.9099999998 | $115.00 |
| 09-26 13:35 | Will “Confessions II – The Film” by Madonna win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? | SELL | 0.9644063498 | $108.75 |
| 09-26 11:58 | Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 600k? | BUY | 0.9099999998 | $250.00 |
| 09-26 11:56 | Will Madonna win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? | SELL | 0.6984005376 | $41.57 |
| 09-26 01:17 | Will “Aperture” by Harry Styles win Best Dance at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? | SELL | 0.999 | $54.94 |
| 09-26 01:16 | Will Taylor Swift's monthly listeners figure hit 122m by October 31? | BUY | 0.9099999991 | $50.00 |
| 09-26 01:04 | Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the #1 US song this week? | BUY | 0.9299999971 | $19.50 |
| 09-26 01:03 | Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 600k? | BUY | 0.9 | $300.00 |
| 09-26 01:03 | Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 700k? | BUY | 0.94 | $500.00 |
| 09-25 13:47 | Will "The Life of a Showgirl: The Encore" first week sales be at least 600k? | BUY | 0.8 | $30.00 |
| 09-25 11:58 | Will "Patient Zero" hit 90m first week streams? | BUY | 0.96 | $13.70 |
| 09-25 11:57 | Will "Patient Zero" hit 100m first week streams? | BUY | 0.96 | $7.10 |