0x82b8c28481ea13156d06a37cc05fed6bd4bbd70a
0x82b8c28481ea13156d06a37cc05fed6bd4bbd70a
- Realised P&L
- $-15.53
- Volume
- $118.04
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $3.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-13.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample34 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)38.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration98.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%? · Yes | 0.300 | 1.000 | $3.33 | +$2.33 |
| Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of October 12 2026? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.050 | $0.06 | −$0.94 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.92at 0.462Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026?
- +$1.53at 0.572Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$1.28at 0.610US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$0.99at 0.674Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in July 2026?
- +$0.95at 0.681Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 01:38 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $770 Week of October 12 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 17:32 | Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.5399999568 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 09:31 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 66% to 67%? | BUY | 0.29999994 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 12:05 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? | BUY | 0.4099998975 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 11:48 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 03:47 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 07:41 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $252 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.5199998823 | $1.06 |
| 09-23 11:40 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 13:01 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 21 to September 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.449999972 | $1.61 |
| 08-28 19:36 | Google Maps renames Lake Ontario to "Lake America" by September 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $2.00 |
| 08-25 09:01 | Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.6099999786 | $2.00 |
| 08-21 20:54 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.787999937 | $2.00 |
| 08-15 03:15 | Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%? | BUY | 0.6699996951 | $2.00 |
| 08-14 18:31 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 08-12 22:24 | Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.5599999664 | $2.00 |