paulaabdul
0x82805a74c068958988e8a5f63fc022546d63ad9e
- Realised P&L
- $-50.65
- Volume
- $5.5k
- Markets traded
- 71
- Open portfolio
- $2.51
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded71
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration89.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.810 | $2.25 | −$0.19 |
| Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.045 | $0.26 | −$0.74 |
| Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during National Agriculture Day events? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.22at 0.602Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$5.54at 0.760Will Berachain not launch a token in 2024?
- +$2.20at 0.810Will TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?
- +$1.31at 0.910Coinbase #1 finance app on Friday?
- +$1.31at 0.950Will Donald Trump be inaugurated?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-05 13:43 | Will 3jane launch a token by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $2.44 |
| 09-05 13:42 | Will Trump launch a coin by December 31? | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |
| 09-05 13:41 | Negative GDP growth in 2026? | SELL | 0.973 | $2.07 |
| 09-05 13:41 | US recession by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.93 | $4.13 |
| 07-12 14:11 | Will Andrew Tate attend Taylor Swift's wedding? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.00 |
| 07-12 14:11 | Negative GDP growth in 2026? | BUY | 0.9349999766 | $2.00 |
| 07-12 14:10 | US recession by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $4.00 |
| 05-16 12:33 | Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.0283393814 | $1.00 |
| 05-16 12:33 | Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31? | BUY | 0.9549999952 | $2.00 |
| 05-16 12:30 | Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? | SELL | 0.312 | $0.96 |
| 04-20 16:52 | Will Sabrina Carpenter be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? | SELL | 0.813 | $3.03 |
| 03-24 18:19 | Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during National Agriculture Day events? | BUY | 0.7599999595 | $3.00 |
| 03-24 18:19 | Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be less than 3m? | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 03-24 18:18 | Will Sabrina Carpenter be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026? | BUY | 0.803999956 | $3.00 |
| 03-24 18:18 | Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on Spotify this week? | BUY | 0.9729999961 | $5.00 |