0x824fcE286D9292bf265243d7D08cE927800f4d6b-1776459809173
0x824fce286d9292bf265243d7d08ce927800f4d6b
- Realised P&L
- $-116.09
- Volume
- $3.4k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $74.30
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample8 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)12.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.078 | $63.71 | −$11.29 |
| Obama federally charged before 2027? · Yes | 0.128 | 0.050 | $5.80 | −$9.20 |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? · Yes | 0.157 | 0.075 | $4.78 | −$5.22 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$85.91at 0.055Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
- +$-1.00at 0.018Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30?
- +$-1.00at 0.001U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?
- +$-10.00at 0.033Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
- +$-10.00at 0.180Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-29 00:56 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999978 | $60.00 |
| 05-26 19:08 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999968 | $50.00 |
| 05-18 20:34 | Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? | BUY | 0.1699999972 | $50.00 |
| 05-18 20:32 | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? | BUY | 0.0333333333 | $10.00 |
| 05-17 22:41 | Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.1129844756 | $50.00 |
| 05-14 01:04 | Will Anthony Fauci be arrested before 2027? | BUY | 0.0667915963 | $25.00 |
| 05-14 00:55 | Obama federally charged before 2027? | BUY | 0.1279421712 | $15.00 |
| 04-22 15:57 | U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 04-18 15:47 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | BUY | 0.156916589 | $10.00 |
| 04-18 13:34 | Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by April 30? | BUY | 0.0176563892 | $1.00 |
| 04-18 13:33 | Will Netanyahu talk to Joseph Aoun by April 30? | BUY | 0.2999999925 | $20.00 |
| 04-18 01:33 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0549999902 | $5.00 |
| 04-18 01:07 | Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? | BUY | 0.179999987 | $10.00 |