AZwater
0x8245ea0d5a476678cb354b69e136908f0757ebed
- Realised P&L
- $-56.5k
- Volume
- $60.07M
- Markets traded
- 5,659
- Open portfolio
- $45.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded5,659
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration53.5% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.982 | 0.986 | $9.9k | +$40.00 |
| Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? · No | 0.975 | 0.974 | $9.7k | −$15.00 |
| Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.935 | $9.3k | +$50.00 |
| Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.935 | $4.7k | +$25.00 |
| Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.930 | $4.6k | +$0.00 |
| Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.975 | 0.976 | $3.3k | +$3.40 |
| Will Carlos Ricardo Bruce Montes de Oca win the next Lima mayoral elections? · No | 0.972 | 0.994 | $2.4k | +$53.68 |
| Will Francis James Allison Oyague win the next Lima mayoral elections? · No | 0.981 | 0.977 | $1.9k | −$8.35 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1? · Yes | 0.050 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$32.7kat 0.898Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in December?
- +$21.5kat 0.854Will Lee Jun-seok win between 8% and 11% of the vote in the South Korea election?
- +$18.9kat 0.912Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by January 31, 2025?
- +$17.6kat 0.846Ethereum all time high in 2024?
- +$14.2kat 0.930Conservatives win majority in Canadian election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 16:17 | Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $4.7k |
| 10-31 16:12 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.982 | $2.8k |
| 10-26 22:42 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.785 | $7.85 |
| 10-26 22:06 | Will Fabian Ruiz finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.954 | $104.94 |
| 10-26 22:04 | Will Michael Olise finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.9873500456 | $995.68 |
| 10-26 22:04 | Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.9878689956 | $226.22 |
| 10-26 22:03 | Will Ousmane Dembélé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.9786837607 | $57.25 |
| 10-26 22:02 | Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.999 | $980.62 |
| 10-26 22:01 | Will Harry Kane finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.994 | $185.88 |
| 10-26 21:58 | Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026 Ballon d'Or Men's Club of the Year award? | BUY | 0.96 | $167.44 |
| 10-26 13:44 | Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.998 | $29.9k |
| 10-23 19:35 | Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.998 | $20.0k |
| 10-23 03:07 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.928 | $14.85 |
| 10-22 03:04 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.958 | $252.24 |
| 10-20 18:54 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.951 | $6.1k |