0x8244a31bdbb3b611f7d7b3440f54d5ff3d3f16a6
- Realised P&L
- $-287.94
- Volume
- $49.2k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $1.1k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration30.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? · No | 0.520 | 0.500 | $961.54 | −$38.46 |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? · No | 0.514 | 0.500 | $82.68 | −$2.32 |
| Will Juventus win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.085 | $69.96 | −$37.04 |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$120.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$352.44at 0.706Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$335.24at 0.437US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
- +$148.38at 0.395Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?
- +$80.57at 0.626Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$78.93at 0.223Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-02 15:35 | Will Juventus win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship? | BUY | 0.129999999 | $107.00 |
| 07-19 18:29 | Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.5899999989 | $127.00 |
| 07-14 10:32 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.9703577733 | $157.23 |
| 07-09 21:30 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.002 | $7.69 |
| 07-08 21:13 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.2899999986 | $120.00 |
| 07-08 14:56 | Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7613503672 | $123.36 |
| 07-07 17:24 | Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.1933333333 | $29.00 |
| 07-04 02:04 | Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.9 | $111.11 |
| 07-04 00:33 | Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.8099999993 | $100.00 |
| 07-02 13:51 | Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.0259999997 | $100.00 |
| 06-29 20:07 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | SELL | 0.4591117222 | $472.46 |
| 06-29 01:20 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.3563324166 | $366.69 |
| 06-28 18:11 | Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.6 | $99.00 |
| 06-20 16:26 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? | SELL | 0.004 | $1.91 |
| 06-15 09:43 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? | BUY | 0.4923968535 | $69.48 |