0x8232048bbd1b732431faf4da28c6e6ec50585ef2
- Realised P&L
- $-15.53
- Volume
- $6.1k
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $2.01
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample13 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)7.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $2.01 | −$0.67 |
| Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.90 |
| Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.95 |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? · Yes | 0.023 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.95 |
| Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.10at 0.029Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?
- +$-0.17at 0.010Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
- +$-0.19at 0.019Will Matteo Berrettini win the 2026 Men's French Open?
- +$-0.34at 0.058Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2?
- +$-0.37at 0.049Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-30 09:52 | Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.68 |
| 05-30 09:26 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? | SELL | 0.4 | $2.19 |
| 05-30 09:22 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 31? | BUY | 0.4898376956 | $2.68 |
| 05-30 08:58 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? | SELL | 0.0425963556 | $2.31 |
| 05-29 22:11 | Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.009 | $1.56 |
| 05-29 22:07 | Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.73 |
| 05-29 21:48 | Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? | SELL | 0.022024 | $1.82 |
| 05-29 21:35 | Will Learner Tien win the 2026 Men's French Open? | BUY | 0.028 | $2.31 |
| 05-29 21:30 | Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.032 | $1.57 |
| 05-29 20:46 | Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? | SELL | 0.0217556675 | $0.86 |
| 05-29 20:22 | Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.68 |
| 05-29 20:19 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | SELL | 0.031 | $1.55 |
| 05-29 19:32 | Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.36 | $1.40 |
| 05-29 18:55 | Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.90 |
| 05-29 18:47 | Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 73m and 79m? | SELL | 0.025 | $1.68 |