0x821c322132423d1082DA3B2EfBf9b368A3f236aA-1772430458266
0x821c322132423d1082da3b2efbf9b368a3f236aa
- Realised P&L
- $-282.29
- Volume
- $16.1k
- Markets traded
- 41
- Open portfolio
- $422.64
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded41
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration45.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample32 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.786 | 0.931 | $223.56 | +$34.92 |
| Will Netanyahu announce his retirement from politics by March 31, 2027? · No | 0.722 | 0.680 | $103.46 | −$6.32 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.810 | 0.915 | $60.39 | +$6.93 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.987 | $32.60 | +$2.20 |
| Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15? · Yes | 0.024 | 0.038 | $1.41 | +$0.52 |
| FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.025 | $1.23 | −$0.20 |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 19, 2026? · Yes | 0.921 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$378.28 |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 20, 2026? · Yes | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$39.33 |
| Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.02 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$242.45at 0.579Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?
- +$36.71at 0.654Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 11?
- +$36.16at 0.821Will Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on March 21, 2026?
- +$35.30at 0.690Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?
- +$27.55at 0.948Will Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 9, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 03:52 | Will Netanyahu announce his retirement from politics by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.69 | $8.38 |
| 10-14 17:54 | Will Netanyahu announce his retirement from politics by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.7237195792 | $92.19 |
| 10-14 17:45 | Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 15? | BUY | 0.024 | $0.89 |
| 10-14 17:40 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 11? | SELL | 0.76 | $5.03 |
| 10-10 20:55 | Will Riyadh airport be closed by October 15? | BUY | 0.64 | $42.88 |
| 10-10 20:44 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 11? | BUY | 0.74 | $4.90 |
| 10-10 20:42 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $80.75 |
| 10-10 16:25 | FlyDubai co-pilot transferred to Israel by Oct. 31? | BUY | 0.0284131737 | $1.42 |
| 10-10 16:24 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $3.36 |
| 10-10 14:00 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15? | BUY | 0.9199999794 | $30.40 |
| 10-10 05:23 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.946 | $27.79 |
| 10-09 13:38 | Pakistan military action against Yemen by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.786 | $188.64 |
| 10-09 11:55 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $77.35 |
| 10-09 11:54 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $56.70 |
| 10-09 07:47 | Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.8794898319 | $100.00 |