MoneyMachineLupLup
0x8215ec6d93e1eee909d1167a5f5f73ed20b2039f
- Realised P&L
- $161.35
- Volume
- $42.7k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $213.01
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)45.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration93.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.041 | $199.41 | −$330.60 |
| Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.009 | $13.60 | −$82.40 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? · No | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$448.03 |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.063 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$312.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$800.60at 0.380US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?
- +$614.92at 0.699Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before election?
- +$145.56at 0.530US x Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026?
- +$50.80at 0.230Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.130Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-05 15:39 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.063 | $312.20 |
| 05-16 17:31 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.1076455877 | $530.00 |
| 02-17 18:59 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.5899999997 | $448.03 |
| 02-06 22:34 | Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? | BUY | 0.06 | $47.57 |
| 02-01 07:11 | US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $30.40 |
| 02-01 07:11 | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | SELL | 0.42 | $335.98 |
| 01-30 10:59 | US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.46 | $78.02 |
| 01-30 10:59 | US strikes Iran by February 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $5.40 |
| 01-20 19:39 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $38.00 |
| 01-12 17:00 | US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | SELL | 0.19 | $76.00 |
| 01-12 08:00 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $88.00 |
| 01-12 08:00 | US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $92.00 |
| 01-12 06:47 | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.31 | $196.85 |
| 01-05 16:28 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.18 | $90.00 |
| 01-04 09:47 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | BUY | 0.1941437613 | $405.00 |