0x820f615169df18e1b0ef78666cfd996be77848a9
0x820f615169df18e1b0ef78666cfd996be77848a9
- Realised P&L
- $-72.48
- Volume
- $962.95
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $25.46
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample22 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United States win on 2026-07-01? · Yes | 0.720 | 1.000 | $13.89 | +$3.89 |
| Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? · No | 0.590 | 0.745 | $6.31 | +$1.31 |
| Base FDV above $5B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.255 | $2.83 | −$2.17 |
| Base FDV above $8B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.150 | $2.42 | −$2.58 |
| Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 · Over | 0.600 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? · No | 0.810 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 · Under | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) · Qatar | 0.550 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 · Under | 0.450 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Spread: Brazil (-1.5) · Scotland | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$15.00 |
| Spread: England (-1.5) · England | 0.565 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Spread: Morocco (-1.5) · Haiti | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.22at 0.472Spread: Portugal (-2.5)
- +$14.84at 0.258Will England win on 2026-06-23?
- +$10.61at 0.819US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
- +$5.38at 0.603Spread: Uruguay (-1.5)
- +$3.87at 0.140US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-28 03:00 | Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.6 | $10.00 |
| 06-28 03:00 | Will United States win on 2026-07-01? | BUY | 0.7199999856 | $10.00 |
| 06-28 03:00 | Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | BUY | 0.8099999854 | $10.00 |
| 06-24 21:56 | Spread: Morocco (-1.5) | BUY | 0.5099999956 | $15.00 |
| 06-24 21:51 | Spread: Morocco (-1.5) | BUY | 0.5099999956 | $15.00 |
| 06-24 21:24 | Spread: Brazil (-1.5) | BUY | 0.5299999982 | $15.00 |
| 06-24 19:41 | Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 | BUY | 0.449999988 | $15.00 |
| 06-23 21:06 | Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) | BUY | 0.549999989 | $15.00 |
| 06-23 20:21 | Spread: England (-1.5) | BUY | 0.5599999895 | $15.00 |
| 06-23 20:09 | Spread: England (-1.5) | BUY | 0.5699999939 | $15.00 |
| 06-23 15:28 | Spread: Portugal (-2.5) | BUY | 0.4599999926 | $15.00 |
| 06-15 20:58 | Spread: Belgium (-1.5) | BUY | 0.5599999595 | $4.98 |
| 06-15 20:58 | Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? | BUY | 0.76 | $2.00 |
| 06-15 20:57 | Will England win on 2026-06-23? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 06-15 20:57 | Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? | BUY | 0.6099999756 | $5.00 |