0x820934bee5c1acd261878cc999713313e4175640
0x820934bee5c1acd261878cc999713313e4175640
- Realised P&L
- $-4.31
- Volume
- $296.90
- Markets traded
- 80
- Open portfolio
- $1.83
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded80
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.745 | $0.97 | −$0.03 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $540 Week of October 19 2026? · Yes | 0.620 | 0.465 | $0.75 | −$0.25 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.035 | $0.11 | −$0.89 |
| SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 20? · Down | 0.340 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.26at 0.249Will ISM Services PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in July?
- +$3.35at 0.379Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026?
- +$2.67at 0.280Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?
- +$2.54at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?
- +$2.29at 0.472Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-20 14:53 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 10-20 06:53 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 20? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 22:53 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $540 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.6199998512 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 14:52 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.728 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 06:50 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 18:16 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 08:39 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.3899999337 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 23:57 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.5099998215 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 14:51 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September? | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-11 06:50 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 06:14 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:34 | Will PPI YoY be 5.9% or more in September? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 00:42 | Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.7849998783 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 16:24 | Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $190 Week of October 5 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $1.00 |
| 10-07 08:01 | Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.4799998464 | $1.00 |