HoldenBloodfeast
0x8204c2803f9b69e6a623ac70c92a049699ed56ea
- Realised P&L
- $-2.0k
- Volume
- $1.24M
- Markets traded
- 96
- Open portfolio
- $940.38
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded96
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)82.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.1kat 0.100Maduro out by January 31, 2026?
- +$14.6kat 0.093US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?
- +$3.1kat 0.451Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
- +$2.0kat 0.741Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- +$2.0kat 0.200Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 03:59 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.83 | $3.8k |
| 08-02 02:28 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.013 | $182.00 |
| 08-02 02:26 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $91.00 |
| 08-02 02:23 | SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7 | $70.00 |
| 08-02 00:24 | Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.83 | $20.75 |
| 08-01 23:58 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.7583591164 | $758.37 |
| 07-23 12:36 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $195.00 |
| 07-23 12:35 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.71 | $1.4k |
| 07-20 23:25 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.45 | $225.00 |
| 07-20 23:23 | Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.31 | $217.00 |
| 07-20 23:22 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.927 | $381.92 |
| 07-20 23:20 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.74 | $3.0k |
| 07-16 22:09 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.255 | $255.00 |
| 07-16 21:57 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.7 | $700.00 |
| 07-16 21:55 | Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.022 | $330.00 |