flawed-origin
0x81ccba8a9db005c7a6b6d8921f26b313e8089bf7
- Realised P&L
- $742.65
- Volume
- $7.8k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $523.79
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar9.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration50.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration41.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dua Lipa headline Coachella 2027? · Yes | 0.648 | 0.705 | $217.58 | +$17.59 |
| Will SZA headline Coachella 2027? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.610 | $151.17 | +$42.07 |
| Will "Godzilla Minus Zero" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 28m? · No | 0.840 | 0.770 | $92.40 | −$8.40 |
| Will Tame Impala headline Coachella 2027? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.700 | $62.65 | +$4.47 |
| LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS - Game 2 Winner · LOS | 0.382 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$859.83 |
| Will BNB dip to $600 in October? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.88 |
| Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 28m and 31m? · Yes | 0.256 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$56.99 |
| Will "Clayface" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 34m? · Yes | 0.058 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.30 |
| Will BNB dip to $300 in October? · Yes | 0.006 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$12.25 |
| Will BNB dip to $400 in October? · Yes | 0.012 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.08 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.9kat 0.611LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner
- +$810.94at 0.459LoL: Karmine Corp vs CTBC Flying Oyster - Game 2 Winner
- +$682.83at 0.764LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage
- +$185.25at 0.700LoL: LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage
- +$48.00at 0.540Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12m?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 21:44 | LoL: LOS vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage | SELL | 0.999 | $619.04 |
| 10-31 20:56 | Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 10m and 12m? | SELL | 0.94 | $112.79 |
| 10-31 00:09 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.6 | $1.5k |
| 10-30 23:31 | Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | BUY | 0.8779974408 | $109.78 |
| 10-30 23:04 | LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage | SELL | 0.999 | $2.9k |
| 10-30 22:31 | LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.57 | $316.57 |
| 10-30 22:30 | LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.77 | $390.13 |
| 10-30 22:29 | LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.83 | $1.1k |
| 10-30 21:27 | LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.37 | $546.95 |
| 10-30 21:26 | LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.41 | $211.23 |
| 10-30 21:25 | LoL: Team Liquid vs LOS - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.3901791295 | $139.84 |
| 10-30 15:59 | Will SZA headline Coachella 2027? | BUY | 0.4697584777 | $19.26 |
| 10-30 15:55 | Will SZA headline Coachella 2027? | BUY | 0.4344108688 | $89.85 |
| 10-30 15:54 | Will Tame Impala headline Coachella 2027? | BUY | 0.65 | $58.18 |
| 10-30 15:54 | Will Dua Lipa headline Coachella 2027? | BUY | 0.6479936491 | $199.98 |