elrah
0x81a6b35b86b36090d38779d717f2fe60f442b93b
- Realised P&L
- $-5.3k
- Volume
- $598.9k
- Markets traded
- 716
- Open portfolio
- $11.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded716
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration12.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.1kat 0.765UFC 330: Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry (Welterweight, Main Card)
- +$932.56at 0.677Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in August?
- +$901.30at 0.899Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in August?
- +$393.36at 0.885Will Ethereum reach $2,700 September 7-13?
- +$390.98at 0.953Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-19 08:41 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on September 20? | SELL | 0.821 | $338.25 |
| 09-19 08:40 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on September 19? | SELL | 0.941 | $470.74 |
| 09-19 07:43 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in September? | BUY | 0.7248997525 | $494.94 |
| 09-18 17:07 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September? | BUY | 0.95 | $1000.00 |
| 09-18 16:25 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on September 20? | BUY | 0.9470781771 | $300.00 |
| 09-18 16:25 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on September 19? | BUY | 0.9796488427 | $400.00 |
| 09-18 16:25 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 21? | BUY | 0.978 | $500.00 |
| 09-18 16:24 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 22? | BUY | 0.9529999999 | $300.00 |
| 09-18 16:24 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 23? | BUY | 0.9359999999 | $300.00 |
| 09-18 16:24 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 24? | BUY | 0.919895745 | $300.00 |
| 09-18 16:13 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 24? | SELL | 0.4958052032 | $115.30 |
| 09-18 16:13 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 23? | SELL | 0.52 | $153.67 |
| 09-18 16:12 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 20? | SELL | 0.521 | $225.48 |
| 09-18 16:07 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 21? | SELL | 0.5453240265 | $355.86 |
| 09-18 15:47 | Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in September? | BUY | 0.8999999993 | $1.0k |