shadukered
0x81a47d6166fbd5330a7200afe15ef04b5055b648
- Realised P&L
- $-607.44
- Volume
- $21.9k
- Markets traded
- 186
- Open portfolio
- $15.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded186
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$99.07at 0.299Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 1?
- +$40.29at 0.313Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 2?
- +$29.07at 0.150Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 1?
- +$26.00at 0.380Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26?
- +$16.09at 0.760Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or higher on April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 06:43 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 23? | SELL | 0.19 | $0.79 |
| 09-22 01:36 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 23? | BUY | 0.2399999808 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 16:08 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on September 22? | BUY | 0.161999987 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 14:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 25? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 14:55 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on September 25? | BUY | 0.1719999849 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 08:52 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 21? | SELL | 0.912 | $2.60 |
| 09-21 04:26 | Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.164999988 | $2.00 |
| 09-21 04:25 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 21? | SELL | 0.32 | $0.97 |
| 09-20 17:49 | Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 13:45 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 21? | BUY | 0.3299998944 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 06:16 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-20 04:18 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 20? | SELL | 0.4 | $1.48 |
| 09-19 14:15 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 20? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 14:12 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 21? | BUY | 0.3499999825 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 14:08 | Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election? | BUY | 0.1489999999 | $5.00 |