Toomuchwinning1
0x81924e30a4fe9e1eb715ade61296be6fa74c0664
- Realised P&L
- $-2.8k
- Volume
- $1.18M
- Markets traded
- 1,978
- Open portfolio
- $0.41
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,978
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration42.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)8.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will MrBeast's next video get 104 million or more views on day 2? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.003 | $0.30 | −$1.20 |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 104 million views on day 2? · Yes | 0.066 | 0.003 | $0.10 | −$2.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$396.40at 0.005Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
- +$249.24at 0.083Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?
- +$112.61at 0.900Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?
- +$103.34at 0.025Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?
- +$68.06at 0.073Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 02:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET | SELL | 0.99 | $2.67 |
| 10-19 02:20 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 02:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET | BUY | 0.5299998463 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 02:14 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET | SELL | 0.83 | $3.09 |
| 10-19 02:11 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 18, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET | BUY | 0.5099998899 | $1.90 |
| 10-19 02:09 | Will MrBeast's next video get 104 million or more views on day 2? | BUY | 0.015 | $1.50 |
| 10-19 02:09 | Will MrBeast's next video get between 100 and 104 million views on day 2? | BUY | 0.07 | $1.40 |
| 10-17 01:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 01:48 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17? | SELL | 0.0392824497 | $2.58 |
| 10-16 16:12 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 17? | BUY | 0.0389999995 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 16:10 | LoL: MVK Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Worlds Play-In | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $2.00 |
| 10-16 05:55 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 05:53 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | SELL | 0.032 | $1.11 |
| 10-15 18:34 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18? | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 18:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET | BUY | 0.4599997976 | $1.00 |