PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

Lepton

0x81540e9e203600ab12f3bcc7c3fd6d7805fa2045

Realised P&L
$-69.49
Volume
$357.18
Markets traded
19
Open portfolio
$7.66

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-19.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded19
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration49.3% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample17 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)29.4%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? · Yes0.2330.125$7.36$6.37
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? · No0.4400.000$0.00$8.80

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
01-18 13:38Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?BUY0.6$6.00
01-18 13:36Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?SELL0.07$0.70
01-07 20:04Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?BUY0.2299999869$10.00
01-07 14:48U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027?BUY0.24$4.54
01-07 01:12Venezuela coup attempt by March 31?BUY0.29999997$5.00
01-07 01:10Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?BUY0.35$7.00
12-10 01:56Will Trump say "Minnesota" or "Walz" during Pennsylvania events on December 9?SELL0.999$9.99
12-09 22:29Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31?BUY0.43$4.30
12-09 22:10Will Trump say "Affordable" or "Affordability" 5+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9?BUY0.84$6.84
12-09 18:03Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9?BUY0.48$4.80
12-09 17:52Will Trump say "Minnesota" or "Walz" during Pennsylvania events on December 9?BUY0.53$5.30
12-09 17:51Will Trump say "World Cup" during Pennsylvania events on December 9?BUY0.64$6.40
12-09 17:36Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31?BUY0.6$2.54
12-01 12:12Will "Unconstitutional" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?BUY0.52$5.20
12-01 12:10Will "Recession" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?BUY0.46$4.60