Lepton
0x81540e9e203600ab12f3bcc7c3fd6d7805fa2045
- Realised P&L
- $-69.49
- Volume
- $357.18
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $7.66
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-19.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration49.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)29.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? · Yes | 0.233 | 0.125 | $7.36 | −$6.37 |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? · No | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.80 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$13.00at 0.350Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$4.69at 0.530Will Trump say "Minnesota" or "Walz" during Pennsylvania events on December 9?
- +$4.00at 0.600Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31?
- +$3.40at 0.830Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase December 2-8?
- +$1.30at 0.840Will Trump say "Affordable" or "Affordability" 5+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-18 13:38 | Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? | BUY | 0.6 | $6.00 |
| 01-18 13:36 | Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.70 |
| 01-07 20:04 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BUY | 0.2299999869 | $10.00 |
| 01-07 14:48 | U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina" before 2027? | BUY | 0.24 | $4.54 |
| 01-07 01:12 | Venezuela coup attempt by March 31? | BUY | 0.29999997 | $5.00 |
| 01-07 01:10 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? | BUY | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 12-10 01:56 | Will Trump say "Minnesota" or "Walz" during Pennsylvania events on December 9? | SELL | 0.999 | $9.99 |
| 12-09 22:29 | Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam by January 31? | BUY | 0.43 | $4.30 |
| 12-09 22:10 | Will Trump say "Affordable" or "Affordability" 5+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9? | BUY | 0.84 | $6.84 |
| 12-09 18:03 | Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9? | BUY | 0.48 | $4.80 |
| 12-09 17:52 | Will Trump say "Minnesota" or "Walz" during Pennsylvania events on December 9? | BUY | 0.53 | $5.30 |
| 12-09 17:51 | Will Trump say "World Cup" during Pennsylvania events on December 9? | BUY | 0.64 | $6.40 |
| 12-09 17:36 | Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31? | BUY | 0.6 | $2.54 |
| 12-01 12:12 | Will "Unconstitutional" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | BUY | 0.52 | $5.20 |
| 12-01 12:10 | Will "Recession" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast? | BUY | 0.46 | $4.60 |