erfhgbedrh
0x81139e0a564b00037986cbfaaacbfdcd51267f3b
- Realised P&L
- $-217.07
- Volume
- $9.2k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $663.66
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31? · No | 0.780 | 0.770 | $261.80 | −$3.40 |
| Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? · Yes | 0.930 | 0.961 | $220.91 | +$7.01 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? · No | 0.592 | 0.517 | $180.95 | −$26.25 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$36.00at 0.880Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?
- +$-4.88at 0.799Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
- +$-9.19at 0.919Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
- +$-119.00at 0.290Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
- +$-120.00at 0.500Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 06:28 | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $11.74 |
| 05-15 11:49 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.912 | $820.80 |
| 04-13 08:14 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.919 | $459.50 |
| 03-29 02:28 | Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? | BUY | 0.5 | $350.00 |
| 03-23 07:41 | Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | SELL | 0.791 | $476.54 |
| 03-19 11:54 | Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | BUY | 0.799 | $487.39 |