0x81017882A86cE613E31f98Ec839aeDCA6c6A80Da-1768204361515
0x81017882a86ce613e31f98ec839aedca6c6a80da
- Realised P&L
- $-56.94
- Volume
- $313.83
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $8.73
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-18.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration80.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.460 | 0.065 | $7.06 | −$42.93 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.055 | $1.12 | −$8.88 |
| EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31? · Yes | 0.495 | 0.040 | $0.55 | −$6.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.39at 0.410Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$7.05at 0.450US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$3.89at 0.720ICE shooter charged by March 31?
- +$-4.23at 0.260Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?
- +$-10.00at 0.470Will the US strike Somalia next?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-15 17:10 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999649 | $5.77 |
| 01-15 17:06 | Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility? | SELL | 0.15 | $5.77 |
| 01-12 08:54 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.4599999952 | $49.99 |
| 01-12 08:41 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.409999991 | $10.00 |
| 01-12 08:39 | EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by December 31? | BUY | 0.4948979592 | $6.79 |
| 01-12 08:32 | Will the US strike Somalia next? | BUY | 0.4699999915 | $10.00 |
| 01-12 08:31 | ICE shooter charged by March 31? | BUY | 0.7199999856 | $10.00 |
| 01-12 08:27 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4901960784 | $10.00 |
| 01-12 08:17 | Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility? | BUY | 0.2599999839 | $10.00 |
| 01-12 08:15 | US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999844 | $10.00 |