0x80d57f5460e2a89f22a4c860babeb640b5bc7344
- Realised P&L
- $-9.4k
- Volume
- $235.4k
- Markets traded
- 116
- Open portfolio
- $6.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded116
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)28.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.797 | 0.720 | $2.3k | −$240.62 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.735 | 0.915 | $1.2k | +$245.58 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.730 | 0.645 | $706.85 | −$93.15 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? · Yes | 0.850 | 1.000 | $588.24 | +$88.24 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.874 | 0.992 | $567.45 | +$67.45 |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? · No | 0.840 | 0.925 | $550.60 | +$50.60 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.545 | $406.72 | −$93.28 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$3.5kat 0.836Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?
- +$2.3kat 0.575Will United States win on 2026-06-12?
- +$1.4kat 0.653Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?
- +$1.0kat 0.744Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?
- +$1.0kat 0.846Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-21 07:31 | LoL: BNK FEARX vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage | BUY | 0.8339400349 | $150.00 |
| 07-19 21:23 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.3324999997 | $500.00 |
| 07-18 22:51 | Will England win on 2026-07-18? | SELL | 0.945 | $378.00 |
| 07-16 23:55 | Will England win on 2026-07-18? | BUY | 0.25 | $100.00 |
| 07-16 23:54 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.2699999997 | $500.00 |
| 07-14 11:18 | France vs. Spain: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5974999999 | $1000.00 |
| 07-12 01:08 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.4299999998 | $1000.00 |
| 07-12 01:07 | Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? | BUY | 0.5374999996 | $500.00 |
| 07-08 13:53 | Will France win on 2026-07-09? | BUY | 0.6199999994 | $300.00 |
| 07-07 00:33 | Will United States win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.1780742199 | $500.00 |
| 07-06 21:33 | United States vs. Belgium: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.53 | $1000.00 |
| 07-06 10:15 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-06? | BUY | 0.5199999983 | $100.00 |
| 07-03 22:52 | Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 | BUY | 0.5399999997 | $300.00 |
| 07-03 22:52 | Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 | BUY | 0.0899999985 | $50.00 |
| 07-03 22:52 | Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score | BUY | 0.7799999997 | $500.00 |