agrarward
0x80cf6712f17249a90d0811201db95c433a4b7611
- Realised P&L
- $-8.0k
- Volume
- $3.71M
- Markets traded
- 1,628
- Open portfolio
- $12.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,628
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration7.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valorant: Trace Esports vs A Team (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Play-Ins · Trace Esports | 0.999 | 1.000 | $11.6k | +$5.79 |
| Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner · Sashi Esport | 0.991 | 1.000 | $630.80 | +$5.36 |
| Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? · No | 0.970 | 0.898 | $505.06 | −$39.92 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.8kat 0.033Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?
- +$5.8kat 0.034Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026?
- +$5.8kat 0.034Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
- +$5.8kat 0.034Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
- +$5.8kat 0.034Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-05 10:05 | Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9200087325 | $670.05 |
| 08-05 08:43 | Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Just Players - Map 1 Winner | BUY | 0.999 | $46.18 |
| 08-04 22:43 | Counter-Strike: Galorys vs MEIA NOITE (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage | BUY | 0.9987497229 | $2.0k |
| 08-04 21:03 | Counter-Strike: Galorys vs MEIA NOITE - Map 1 Winner | BUY | 0.999 | $25.72 |
| 08-04 14:45 | Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner | BUY | 0.999 | $195.68 |
| 08-04 14:01 | Rainbow Six Siege: CAG by VARREL vs Fnatic (BO1) - Esports World Cup Play-In Group B | SELL | 0.999 | $98.71 |
| 08-04 12:35 | Counter-Strike: Acend vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Playoffs | BUY | 0.999 | $340.66 |
| 08-04 12:26 | Counter-Strike: ENCE Prospects vs Inner Circle Prospect - Map 2 Winner | SELL | 0.999 | $142.18 |
| 08-04 12:23 | Counter-Strike: ENCE Prospects vs Inner Circle Prospect - Map 2 Winner | BUY | 0.999 | $5.00 |
| 08-03 22:45 | LoL: The Ruddy Sack vs Deer Gaming (BO3) - NLC Regular Season | BUY | 0.999 | $514.97 |
| 08-02 11:41 | Counter-Strike: Acend vs 6666 (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group C | BUY | 0.999 | $27.60 |
| 08-02 00:32 | Valorant: Team Envy vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha | BUY | 0.999 | $19.98 |
| 08-01 18:43 | Puffpaw FDV above $400M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.9121088894 | $1.0k |
| 08-01 18:40 | LoL: GIANTX vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season | BUY | 0.9989993613 | $1.22 |
| 07-31 18:54 | Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs STATE (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship European Series #2 Playoffs | BUY | 0.999 | $29.97 |