TheFreak
0x808a011fc57d52ea5e658f307c490e5ebae347e3
- Realised P&L
- $-138.28
- Volume
- $102.8k
- Markets traded
- 107
- Open portfolio
- $8.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded107
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 7? · Yes | 0.980 | 0.999 | $8.28 | +$0.15 |
| Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.379 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.81 |
| Spread: Bologna FC 1909 (-1.5) · Bologna FC 1909 | 0.147 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.00 |
| Spread: Lions (-8.5) · Commanders | 0.540 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.12 |
| Saints vs. Panthers · Panthers | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$23.00 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$30.00 |
| Will Wales win on 2026-03-26? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.00 |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? · Yes | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Spread: Texans (-3.5) · Jaguars | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-1.5) · Tottenham Hotspur FC | 0.679 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Spread: Germany (-3.5) · Curaçao | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$20.00 |
| Bills vs. Dolphins · Bills | 0.820 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$21.00 |
| Will Slovakia win on 2026-03-26? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.00 |
| Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11? · Yes | 0.639 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$21.67at 0.480Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)
- +$15.00at 0.850Will Luis Diaz sign with a new club during the transfer window?
- +$10.67at 0.360Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-03-12?
- +$10.35at 0.680Ravens vs. Vikings
- +$9.88at 0.680Giants vs. Bears
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 13:39 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 7? | BUY | 0.98 | $8.13 |
| 06-04 14:14 | Spread: Argentina (-1.5) | BUY | 0.5699999926 | $20.00 |
| 06-04 14:14 | Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) | BUY | 0.6099999994 | $10.00 |
| 06-04 14:14 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.9 | $30.00 |
| 06-04 14:14 | Spread: Germany (-3.5) | BUY | 0.5099999911 | $20.00 |
| 03-10 17:58 | Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.35 | $3.32 |
| 03-10 17:57 | Will Poland qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.3789743092 | $14.41 |
| 03-10 17:57 | Will Türkiye win on 2026-03-26? | BUY | 0.6499999941 | $11.00 |
| 03-10 17:56 | Will Wales win on 2026-03-26? | BUY | 0.5799999871 | $9.00 |
| 03-10 17:56 | Will Slovakia win on 2026-03-26? | BUY | 0.5799999901 | $7.00 |
| 03-10 17:56 | Will Denmark win on 2026-03-26? | BUY | 0.76 | $7.00 |
| 03-10 17:55 | Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-03-12? | BUY | 0.359999976 | $6.00 |
| 03-10 17:54 | Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-12? | BUY | 0.5199999818 | $8.00 |
| 03-10 17:54 | Spread: VfB Stuttgart (-1.5) | BUY | 0.7899999802 | $8.00 |
| 03-10 17:54 | Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-03-12? | BUY | 0.4599999737 | $7.00 |