sparrowlowdiffschina
0x80800ec55b22085ddea78bb396926989fbcc39d9
- Realised P&L
- $-43.51
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 36
- Open portfolio
- $263.55
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded36
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample31 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)87.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the IN-07 House seat? · No | 0.950 | 0.996 | $56.77 | +$2.62 |
| U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? · No | 0.979 | 0.958 | $52.66 | −$1.18 |
| Will USD/KRW hit 2000 (High) in 2026? · No | 0.983 | 0.968 | $52.24 | −$0.84 |
| Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? · No | 0.968 | 0.949 | $51.22 | −$1.05 |
| Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? · No | 0.973 | 0.921 | $50.65 | −$2.86 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.17at 0.946U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30?
- +$1.80at 0.954Iran leadership change by June 30?
- +$1.59at 0.971Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 5?
- +$1.38at 0.975Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?
- +$1.35at 0.972Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-14 13:34 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.932 | $22.56 |