0x806F374fCa06CA7C499C232f64804A14b06f707F-1733306667262
0x806f374fca06ca7c499c232f64804a14b06f707f
- Realised P&L
- $-61.75
- Volume
- $5.6k
- Markets traded
- 74
- Open portfolio
- $40.12
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded74
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration6.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? · Yes | 0.998 | 0.999 | $23.11 | +$0.01 |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,100 October 12-18? · No | 0.996 | 0.997 | $17.01 | +$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.18at 0.660Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?
- +$0.49at 0.994Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May?
- +$0.22at 0.988Will Isabella Rossellini win Best Supporting Actress at the 2025 Oscars?
- +$0.18at 0.993Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?
- +$0.18at 0.993Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Australian Open?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 04:33 | Will Ethereum reach $3,100 October 12-18? | BUY | 0.996 | $17.00 |
| 10-09 19:29 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 October 5-11? | BUY | 0.9969999717 | $18.00 |
| 10-07 01:47 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $27.00 |
| 10-06 02:57 | Will Paul St-Pierre Plamondon be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? | BUY | 0.998 | $23.10 |
| 10-02 05:14 | Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election? | BUY | 0.998 | $10.90 |
| 10-01 22:21 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 2? | BUY | 0.9945342808 | $29.00 |
| 09-26 17:06 | Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $24.20 |
| 09-25 10:26 | Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on September 25? | BUY | 0.997 | $21.06 |
| 09-25 05:20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on September 26? | BUY | 0.997 | $23.00 |
| 09-23 06:21 | Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $20.00 |
| 09-18 23:24 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.9979999416 | $15.00 |
| 09-14 03:45 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $22.20 |
| 09-13 18:05 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $18.00 |
| 09-07 04:37 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 7? | BUY | 0.9949999826 | $28.00 |
| 09-04 12:19 | Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 3 to September 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $17.00 |