PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

carobcarrot

0x80612f523c9e070eeae14b18f287d3c75fc23c49

Realised P&L
$-116.06
Volume
$2.1k
Markets traded
38
Open portfolio
$8.16

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-5.7%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded38
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration37.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration88.8% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-05 House election by 60%-65%? · Yes0.3200.310$7.24−$0.23
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-02 House election by 0%-3%? · Yes0.2510.218$0.92−$0.14

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-08 17:50Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?SELL0.52$4.07
10-02 02:33Will CNN fly with Trump by October 31?SELL0.11$2.77
09-29 04:32Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?SELL0.19$1.55
09-25 15:38Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NE-03 House election by 45%-50%?SELL0.04$0.80
09-24 15:33Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KS-02 House election by 15%-18%?SELL0.14$3.53
09-23 08:23Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-02 House election by 0%-3%?BUY0.251$6.33
09-22 21:13Will Democrats sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections?SELL0.2$4.20
09-16 12:48Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?SELL0.4$8.40
09-15 14:25Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-02 House election by 10%-15%?SELL0.1$1.59
09-15 13:19Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-02 House election by 10%-15%?SELL0.11$1.00
09-12 19:44Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% before 2027?SELL0.47$9.87
09-11 07:21Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?SELL0.56$11.76
09-05 22:38Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?SELL0.14$3.52
09-03 13:59Will Ahmed Galadima win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election?SELL0.52$10.92
09-01 14:29Will Trump praise Dana White in September?SELL0.1$2.43