carobcarrot
0x80612f523c9e070eeae14b18f287d3c75fc23c49
- Realised P&L
- $-116.06
- Volume
- $2.1k
- Markets traded
- 38
- Open portfolio
- $8.16
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded38
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)18.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration88.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-05 House election by 60%-65%? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.310 | $7.24 | −$0.23 |
| Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-02 House election by 0%-3%? · Yes | 0.251 | 0.218 | $0.92 | −$0.14 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.75at 0.230Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin?
- +$5.21at 0.400Suns vs. Clippers
- +$3.71at 0.300Will Marcos Rogério win the 2026 Rondônia gubernatorial election?
- +$3.12at 0.233Will Bryan Paterson win the 2026 Kingston mayoral election?
- +$1.68at 0.420Will Democrats win exactly 4 House seats in Minnesota in the 2026 midterm elections?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 17:50 | Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027? | SELL | 0.52 | $4.07 |
| 10-02 02:33 | Will CNN fly with Trump by October 31? | SELL | 0.11 | $2.77 |
| 09-29 04:32 | Will Elif Eralp be the next Governing Mayor of Berlin? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.55 |
| 09-25 15:38 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NE-03 House election by 45%-50%? | SELL | 0.04 | $0.80 |
| 09-24 15:33 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KS-02 House election by 15%-18%? | SELL | 0.14 | $3.53 |
| 09-23 08:23 | Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-02 House election by 0%-3%? | BUY | 0.251 | $6.33 |
| 09-22 21:13 | Will Democrats sweep the Texas Senate and Governor elections? | SELL | 0.2 | $4.20 |
| 09-16 12:48 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.4 | $8.40 |
| 09-15 14:25 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-02 House election by 10%-15%? | SELL | 0.1 | $1.59 |
| 09-15 13:19 | Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 SC-02 House election by 10%-15%? | SELL | 0.11 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 19:44 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.55% before 2027? | SELL | 0.47 | $9.87 |
| 09-11 07:21 | Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | SELL | 0.56 | $11.76 |
| 09-05 22:38 | Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary? | SELL | 0.14 | $3.52 |
| 09-03 13:59 | Will Ahmed Galadima win the 2027 Adamawa State gubernatorial election? | SELL | 0.52 | $10.92 |
| 09-01 14:29 | Will Trump praise Dana White in September? | SELL | 0.1 | $2.43 |