Lisbon
0x8055ae09bfeeac2f46dffe254cc1868f2df444c4
- Realised P&L
- $9.7k
- Volume
- $3.34M
- Markets traded
- 601
- Open portfolio
- $68.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded601
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.2kat 0.500Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
- +$627.21at 0.984Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$579.00at 0.971Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?
- +$505.74at 0.984Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?
- +$475.65at 0.978Xi Jinping out before October?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-03 01:17 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.96 | $395.52 |
| 08-03 01:11 | Will Tarik Skubal's next team be Washington Nationals? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.99 |
| 08-03 01:11 | Will Tarik Skubal's next team be Toronto Blue Jays? | BUY | 0.999 | $32.97 |
| 08-03 01:11 | Will Tarik Skubal's next team be Texas Rangers? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.99 |
| 08-03 01:11 | Will Tarik Skubal's next team be Tampa Bay Rays? | BUY | 0.999 | $32.97 |
| 08-03 01:11 | Will Tarik Skubal's next team be St. Louis Cardinals? | BUY | 0.999 | $32.97 |
| 08-03 01:11 | Will Tarik Skubal's next team be San Francisco Giants? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.99 |
| 08-03 01:11 | Will Tarik Skubal's next team be San Diego Padres? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.99 |
| 08-03 01:11 | Will Tarik Skubal's next team be Pittsburgh Pirates? | BUY | 0.999 | $32.97 |
| 08-03 01:11 | Will Tarik Skubal's next team be Philadelphia Phillies? | BUY | 0.999 | $23.98 |
| 08-03 01:11 | Will Tarik Skubal's next team be New York Yankees? | BUY | 0.999 | $26.97 |
| 08-03 01:10 | Will Tarik Skubal's next team be New York Mets? | BUY | 0.999 | $7.99 |
| 08-03 01:10 | Will Tarik Skubal's next team be Milwaukee Brewers? | BUY | 0.999 | $52.95 |
| 08-03 01:10 | Will Tarik Skubal's next team be Los Angeles Angels? | BUY | 0.999 | $32.97 |
| 08-03 01:10 | Will Tarik Skubal's next team be Houston Astros? | BUY | 0.999 | $12.99 |